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Don’t Let Volatility Shake You: Understanding Market Cycles

Jun 17

3 min read

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The market moves in cycles. Your plan shouldn't.

Every investor has faced it: the red numbers on the screen, the headlines predicting doom, the nervous scroll through your investment app.

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Market volatility can feel overwhelming—especially when you're watching hard-earned money seemingly disappear. But here’s the truth:

Volatility is not a bug in the system. It’s the system at work.

Understanding market cycles—and your emotional responses to them—is one of the most important steps toward becoming a resilient, long-term investor.

Let’s break it down.


1. What Is Market Volatility?

Volatility simply refers to the rate at which the price of investments goes up or down. The faster and more frequently the prices change, the more volatile the market is said to be.

It doesn't always mean something is wrong.

In fact, a certain degree of volatility is normal and healthy. It reflects dynamic forces at play—earnings, interest rates, investor sentiment, global events.

More importantly, volatility often creates opportunities—for investors who remain steady while others panic.


2. The Four Phases of a Market Cycle

Markets typically move in cycles—though they don’t follow a fixed timeline. Here’s what a typical cycle looks like:

A. Accumulation Phase

  • The market has bottomed out.

  • Smart money starts entering quietly.

  • Sentiment is low, but valuations are attractive.

B. Uptrend / Expansion

  • Economic indicators improve.

  • Companies post better earnings.

  • Retail investors start participating.

  • Optimism builds.

C. Euphoria / Peak

  • Everyone’s talking about investing.

  • Valuations become stretched.

  • FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sets in.

  • People throw caution to the wind.

D. Correction / Decline

  • A trigger (economic, geopolitical, internal) causes a dip.

  • Panic sets in, especially among new investors.

  • Prices fall sharply, and media predicts collapse.

Then the cycle resets.

If you understand this rhythm, you stop reacting emotionally and start seeing volatility as part of the journey, not the end of the world.


3. Why Selling During Volatility Hurts You Most

Let’s say you invested ₹5 lakhs in a mutual fund, and due to market correction, it drops to ₹4.2 lakhs.

Your instinct might be: “I should sell before I lose more.”

But in doing so, you lock in the loss. Had you stayed invested, there’s a high chance the market would recover and grow your investment beyond the original amount over time.

In fact, the biggest up days in the market often follow big down days. If you exit, you risk missing the recovery—and that can drastically reduce long-term returns.


4. Case Study: Staying Invested Through a Storm

During the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, equity markets fell over 30% in a matter of weeks.

Investors who panicked and pulled out locked in their losses. But those who continued their SIPs—or even increased them—saw a strong recovery in the following year.

By March 2021, many portfolios had not only recovered but grown significantly beyond pre-COVID levels.

This is a powerful lesson: the only thing worse than experiencing volatility is reacting to it impulsively.


5. Tools to Ride Out Market Cycles Smoothly

Here’s how you can protect yourself from emotional investing during volatile times:

A. Stick to a Financial Plan

Your investment plan is built around long-term goals. Don’t let short-term turbulence derail a long-term vision.

B. Diversify Smartly

Spread your investments across asset classes—equity, debt, gold, international funds. Diversification reduces portfolio shocks.

C. Continue Your SIPs

Systematic Investment Plans are designed to take advantage of volatility. You buy more units when prices are low—boosting long-term returns.

D. Keep an Emergency Fund

When you have 6–12 months of expenses in a liquid fund or bank account, you’re less likely to touch your investments in a crisis.

E. Talk to Your Advisor

Sometimes, you just need a voice of reason. A financial advisor can provide perspective, re-align goals, and help you stay grounded.


6. Volatility Is Temporary. Discipline Is Permanent.

Markets have always recovered—from global financial crises, pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, and currency crashes.

What matters isn’t predicting when the recovery will happen. It’s being invested when it does.

Your focus should be on:

  • Time in the market, not timing the market

  • Long-term wealth creation, not short-term gains

  • Behavior, not speculation

Investing is like flying. Turbulence is uncomfortable—but the pilot doesn’t abandon the plane. You stay buckled, stay calm, and ride it out.


TL;DR — Too Long; Didn’t Read

  • Volatility is a normal part of investing—not a signal to panic.

  • Markets move in cycles: accumulation, growth, euphoria, and correction.

  • Selling during dips turns paper losses into real ones. Staying invested allows for recovery.

  • SIPs, diversification, and emergency funds help you ride out turbulence.

  • Work with an advisor to stay focused on long-term goals—not short-term fears.

📩 Feeling uncertain during market dips? Let’s revisit your plan and ensure it’s built to weather all seasons—so your wealth doesn’t depend on headlines.

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